Due to the complexity of the fleet activities and the stochastic nature of the flying programme, it was decided that an Optimisation procedure may be too computationally demanding. Simulation is able to model complexity and stochastic elements neatly and quickly.
decisionLab built an agent-based Simulation model of the fleet management process. The user inputs the state of the current fleet and their proposed upgrade, replacement and retirement schedule. The simulation visualises the fleet performing its duties over 30 years, and gives the user options to adjust input parameters in order to compare scenarios.
Uncertainty in the system is accounted for by considering probability distributions on some of the parameters, e.g. the average age of current aircraft. An aircraft’s age is taken as an indicator of its current value.
decisionLab also provided a rich picture of the fleet management process as a visual aid to the client’s presentation meeting.